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Pump sales will rise from $26.5 billion in 2000 to over $34 billion in 2006. This forecast is included in the continually updated Pumps: World Market which is published online by the McIlvaine Company. Centrifugal pumps will account for 80% of the total with the balance fairly evenly spit among diaphragm, reciprocating, and rotary types.
The pump industry is enjoying modest growth at the time many industries are suffering. While some industry segments are down from 2000 levels others are up. The following industries will purchase fewer pumps in 2002 than in 2000: chemical, oil, gas, electronics, pulp and paper. Industries which will purchase more pumps include food, pharmaceuticals, power, wastewater, municipal drinking water, and mining. The power industry is negatively impacted by the combined cycle gas turbine slow down in the U.S. but buoyed by the rise in coal-fired power and the investment in environmental controls such as desulfurization of stack gases through the use of scrubbers. These scrubbers require large pumps to circulate the scrubbing liquid.
China is the fastest growing market. Purchases of pumps for new plants are impressive even if the replacement pump market is still modest. In 2002 U.S. municipal wastewater plants will spend $121 million for pumps for new facilities. This compares to $101 million which will be spent by Chinese for pumps for new facilities. However when it comes to pump replacements and repairs the U.S. purchases will be $729 million versus just $104 million in China. There is a similar situation in the power sector where China is a leader in purchases of pumps for new plants but represents a smaller market for replacements and repairs. China is making substantial purchases of pumps from offshore companies at the same time it is developing its own pump manufacturing capabilities.
The pump industry continues to globalize. With French companies such as Vivendi and Suez contracting to build own, operate, and maintain municipal water and wastewater plants on all the continents, the pump supplier has to be able to offer these customers service throughout the world. The pump supplier must also satisfy the needs of large American and English power conglomerates who own plants in many countries. The U.S. remains the largest producer of pumps. The top five pump manufacturers worldwide are home based in the U.S., Japan, and Germany. Despite the presence of some large suppliers the industry remains splintered with more than 1000 companies producing pumps. No company has more than 5% of the global market or 10% of the market on any continent.
Future pump sales forecasts are changing continuously as forecasts for basic industry sectors change. Models based on relevant factors such as millions of gallons per day of sewage transport, primary treatment, and secondary treatment are validated in the short term by iteration with the aggregate of individual supplier sales. These validated models are then utilized to project forecasts for the next five years. With 40,000 forecasts including one for each pump type in each application, in each country, there is sufficient segmentation to enable the local sales people to make use of the report. At the same time a flexible query system allows top management to select the most meaningful regional or global aggregations. Since new developments are quickly reflected in new forecasts, there is also the opportunity for suppliers to revise manufacturing and sales strategies in light of revised forecasts.